Wall Street just capped off its best week of the year. In the wake of Donald Trump's election victory, all three major indexes hit new record highs, and the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) topped 6,000 for the first time ever. To start the year, many of Wall Street's prognosticators thought the S&P wouldn't even top 5,000.
Following Wednesday's surge, investors seem to be as bullish as ever, even with the S&P 500 at a historically high valuation. Cyclical stocks, including financials and energy, soared on the news, a sign investors are betting on economic stimulus, likely in the form of tax cuts, and an uptick in business investment and economic expansion during the second Trump administration.
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Tariffs are also expected to be part of Trump's economic policy and the bond market responded to the election in a different way because of that. Yields jumped, showing investors are wary that deficit spending due to tax cuts and tariff-driven inflation would drive up interest rates and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates as it started doing in September. Yields did cool on Thursday and Friday, however.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was asked for his thoughts on large budget deficits and the rising national debt at his press conference following the rate cut decision last week, and his comments were telling. In fact, they were a serious warning on the future of the U.S. economy. Here's what he had to say:
The level of our debt relative to the economy is not unsustainable. The path is unsustainable. And we see that. And, you know, you've got a very large deficit at — you're at full employment at that's expected to continue. ... It's ultimately a threat to the economy.
It's no secret that the national debt has ballooned substantially over the last generation.
While the pandemic accelerated U.S. borrowing, it was already ramping up, and it's continued to accelerate.
As you can see from the chart below, the national debt is about 7 times what it was in 1999, going from $5 trillion to $35 trillion, and it overtook gross domestic product (GDP) around 2010.
You can see from the chart below how fast the debt-to-GDP ratio has grown.
The debt-to-GDP ratio has resumed its upward trajectory after a dip a few years ago as GDP recovered following the height of pandemic lockdowns. You can also see from the chart that the ratio surged during the great financial crisis.
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The MUAMA translator is the ideal device for all holidaymakers, business travellers and employees who frequently encounter language barriers. Difficulties caused by language barriers will soon be a thing of the past!
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