Analysis-Investors balked at Venture Global's earnings outlook before IPO price cut


By Echo Wang, Curtis Williams and David French

(Reuters) - Venture Global LNG was forced to nearly halve the valuation it is seeking in its U.S. initial public offering (IPO) after investors balked at the company's estimated long-term profit for liquefying gas for export, investors told Reuters.

The company is the second-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the United States, itself the world's largest exporter of the supercooled fuel.

The listing is a rare opportunity for investors to gain equity-market exposure to U.S. LNG, and a test of both the company's potential in the energy export business and market faith in the pro-oil and gas policies expected from President Donald Trump's administration.

The Arlington, Virginia-based firm on Wednesday slashed its price range by more than 40% to upper guidance of $65 billion, down from $110 billion. The revised IPO plan, first reported by Reuters on Tuesday, offers additional shares to bridge some of the gap in fundraising from the lower valuation.

Investors questioned whether Venture Global makes enough money to justify the initial IPO price, several investor sources invited to buy shares in the proposed New York flotation told Reuters.

"We are having a hard time getting to the market cap, and I know a few other dedicated funds we've spoken to are not remotely close either," said one investor prior to the revision who, like all the sources who spoke to Reuters, did so on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential information.

Venture Global did not respond to a request for comment.

The initial prospective asking price greatly exceeded Cheniere Energy on an earnings multiple basis, the sources said. Cheniere is the largest U.S. LNG exporter and the best comparison for Venture Global, the sources said.

"I would feel better if the valuation were closer to Cheniere," said a second investor.

Future earnings forecasts would require Venture Global to hit all its growth targets and need market and pricing dynamics to go its way, investor sources said.

For example, Venture Global said in its IPO filing it expects to earn around $4.52 per million British thermal unit "over time" on what it charges customers for its service.

This is despite liquefaction fees traditionally being between $2 and $3 per MMBtu in the United States, according to the document.

Even after the revision to price guidance and the number of shares offered, the top end of the proposed $23-$27 per share price range would still raise as much as $1.9 billion and value Venture Global as highly as $65.3 billion, per Reuters calculations. That would make it one of the ten largest U.S. energy companies by market capitalization.

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